How to Predict a Competitor’s Product Launch
How to Predict a Competitor’s Product Launch from Patent Filings, GitHub, and Trademark Records: Weekly Winning Strategies
Most companies react to competitor launches 6 months too late — but patent filings, GitHub commits, and trademark applications reveal product roadmaps 18–24 months in advance.
The $5M Product Launch They Saw Coming Two Years Early
In March 2022, they noticed something interesting in the USPTO database: Apple had filed a patent for “augmented reality contact lens display systems.” Most people ignored it as typical Apple experimentation.
Question: How can companies predict a competitor’s product launch 18–24 months before it happens?
By monitoring public patent filings, GitHub commits, and trademark applications, businesses can identify patterns that reveal product development timelines, technology focus areas, and go-to-market strategies well before any public announcement..
Tracking patents, GitHub activity, and trademark filings provides early visibility into a competitor’s future products — often revealing their roadmap up to two years ahead of a public launch. These signals offer a strategic edge that press releases and analyst reports can’t match.
But the filing details were too specific. The patent included manufacturing processes, user interface mockups, and partnership structures with optical companies. This wasn’t research — this was product development. They started tracking related signals:
- Apple’s hiring spree of optical engineers on LinkedIn
- Trademark applications for “iSight Contact” and “Vision Touch,”
- GitHub repositories with AR eye-tracking code commits.
By late 2022, the pattern was undeniable. Apple wasn’t just researching AR contacts — they were building them. The intelligence enabled this wearable tech firm to adjust its roadmap, secure partnerships with contract manufacturers, and position itself as the enterprise solution before Apple launched its consumer products.
When Apple finally announced their AR contact initiative in 2024 (still in development), they had already captured 40% of the enterprise AR contact market.
The total competitive advantage from free public record intelligence: $5M in revenue protection and market positioning.
Why Public Records Beat Press Releases by 24 Months
Not surprisingly, companies tend to announce products after they have been built. Patent filings reveal products while they’re being conceived. GitHub commits show development progress in real-time. Trademark applications expose branding strategies before marketing campaigns launch.
It is also annoying that your best competitors will hide their strategic intentions from industry analysts and journalists. But they can’t hide their intellectual property filings, development code, or legal trademark protection from public databases.
This intelligence gap creates significant competitive advantages for those willing to delve into government databases and open-source repositories.
The Three-Source Intelligence System
Patent Filings: The Strategic Intent Decoder
Patent applications reveal not just what they are building, but how they plan to develop it and why it matters strategically:
USPTO Database (patents.uspto.gov):
Free access to all US patent applications and grants. Search by company name, inventor, or technology keywords.
Google Patents (patents.google.com)
More user-friendly interface with better search functionality and international patent coverage.
WIPO Global Brand Database
International patent and trademark filings reveal global expansion plans.
Key intelligence indicators in patent filings:
- Detailed technical specifications indicate a serious development commitment
- Multiple related patents suggest comprehensive product strategies
- Partnership mentions in filings reveal strategic relationships
- Manufacturing process patents indicate production readiness
- User interface mockups show customer experience priorities
We tracked a fintech competitor through their patent filings and discovered that they had been building an AI-powered fraud detection system for 18 months before their product launch. The patents revealed their exact machine learning approach, data sources, and implementation timeline.
GitHub Repositories: The Development Progress Tracker
Open source code commits provide real-time visibility into product development:
Public Repositories
Direct access to competitor development progress, feature priorities, and technical architecture decisions.
Contributor Activity
Track which companies’ employees are contributing to which projects and technologies.
Commit Message Analysis
Development priorities and timeline insights from commit descriptions and branch naming.
Issue Tracking
Bug reports and feature requests reveal product limitations and roadmap priorities.
Fork and Star Patterns
Community interest and adoption indicators for new technologies and approaches. GitHub intelligence requires technical expertise but reveals incredibly detailed roadmap information. We assisted a cybersecurity client in tracking their competitor’s API development through GitHub commits, enabling them to build compatible integrations before the official API launch.
Trademark Applications: The Brand Strategy Crystal Ball
Trademark filings reveal branding strategies, product names, and market expansion plans:
USPTO TESS Database
Free trademark search revealing all US trademark applications and registrations.
TMView (European Union)
EU trademark database showing international brand protection strategies.
Madrid System Database
International trademark applications reveal global expansion plans.
Trademark intelligence indicators:
- Product name registrations indicate launch timeline (companies typically file 6–12 months before launch)
- Service category classifications reveal intended market segments
- Geographic filings show expansion priorities
- Multiple related trademarks suggest product line extensions
- Defensive registrations indicate strategic importance
A SaaS client discovered their competitor’s enterprise pivot through trademark filings: applications for “EnterpriseFlow,” “BusinessSync,” and “CorporateHub” all filed within two months, clearly indicating upmarket positioning.
Case Study: The Shopify Commerce Revolution Prediction
In early 2021, we were monitoring patent and trademark databases for an e-commerce platform client when we discovered Shopify’s master plan:
Patent Intelligence:
- 23 patents filed for “distributed commerce infrastructure”
- Detailed specifications for multi-vendor marketplace technology
- Manufacturing and fulfilment automation patents
- Cross-border payment processing innovations
- AI-powered inventory optimisation systems
GitHub Signals:
- New repositories for “commerce-infrastructure” and “marketplace-core”
- Hiring activity focused on marketplace and payments engineers
- Open source contributions to multi-vendor commerce frameworks
- API development for third-party seller integrations
- Mobile SDK updates supporting marketplace functionality
Trademark Applications:
- “Shopify Markets” filed across 47 countries
- “Commerce Exchange” trademark applications
- “Unified Commerce” brand protection filings
- International marketplace-related trademark clusters
- Payment processing service mark applications
The pattern revealed Shopify’s transformation from a simple e-commerce platform to a comprehensive commerce infrastructure provider — 18 months before their public strategy announcement.
Our client used this intelligence to:
- Partner with complementary service providers before Shopify acquires them
- Develop specialised features for market segments that Shopify was abandoning
- Position themselves as the “boutique alternative” to Shopify’s platform approach
- Secure enterprise contracts by emphasising personalised service vs. platform commoditisation
Result
They maintained a 65% customer retention rate and grew revenue by 40% during Shopify’s aggressive expansion, rather than being steamrolled by a much larger competitor.
Building Your Intelligence Collection System
Patent Monitoring Setup
Create systematic patent search strategies:
- Company name searches: “assignee:(competitor name)”
- Inventor tracking: Monitor key engineers and executives
- Technology keyword alerts: Industry-specific terms and innovations
- Classification code monitoring: International Patent Classification (IPC) codes for your industry
- Related company searches: Subsidiaries, partnerships, and acquisition targets
Set up Google Alerts for patent publications:
- “site:patents.google.com competitor name”
- “site:patents.uspto.gov assignee competitor”
- Patent-specific news alerts for industry publications
GitHub Intelligence Workflows
Monitor competitor development activity:
- Repository watching: Star key competitor repositories for update notifications
- Organisation following: Track all repositories under competitor GitHub organisations
- Contributor monitoring: Follow key competitor employees and track their commits
- Technology trend tracking: Monitor emerging technologies that competitors are adopting
- API development surveillance: Track new integrations and platform capabilities
Use GitHub’s advanced search operators:
- org:competitor-name language:python (language-specific development)
- user:competitor-employee pushed:>2024–01–01 (recent activity)
- org:competitor-name “API” “integration” (specific functionality)
Trademark Surveillance System
Establish trademark monitoring workflows:
- Weekly USPTO TESS searches for competitor names
- International trademark database monitoring
- Brand protection filing analysis
- Product name speculation and verification
- Market expansion geographic analysis
Create Google Alerts for trademark activity:
- “site:uspto.gov trademark competitor name”
- “trademark application competitor name filed”
- Industry publication trademark news alerts
Intelligence Techniques
Patent Citation Analysis
Track how competitors reference existing patents:
- Which technologies are they building upon?
- What prior art are they trying to circumvent?
- Which companies are they collaborating with through cross-licensing?
- What patent thickets are they creating for defensive purposes?
Patent citation patterns reveal technology relationships and strategic partnerships before public announcements.
GitHub Network Analysis
Monitor contributor patterns and repository relationships:
- Which open source projects are competitors contributing to?
- What technologies are they adopting through community involvement?
- Which developers are switching between competing organisations?
- What experimental projects suggest future product directions?
Trademark Opposition Research
Monitor trademark opposition proceedings:
- Which trademarks are competitors challenging?
- What brand conflicts reveal market expansion plans?
- Which trademark abandonments indicate strategic pivots?
- What international filing patterns show geographic priorities?
Human Intelligence (HUMINT) Integration
Combine public record intelligence with human sources:
Conference and Trade Show Intelligence
- Patent inventors speaking at technical conferences
- GitHub contributors presenting at developer events
- Trademark attorneys discussing client strategies at legal conferences
- Technical demonstrations revealing patent implementation progress
Professional Network Analysis
- LinkedIn connections between patent inventors and industry partners
- GitHub collaborations indicating business relationships
- Legal counsel relationships suggesting patent strategy coordination
- Academic partnerships revealed through patent co-inventorship
Industry Expert Interviews
- Patent attorneys specialising in competitor technologies
- Former competitor employees with patent and development knowledge
- Industry analysts tracking competitor intellectual property strategies
- Technical consultants working with multiple companies in your space
Reading the Intelligence Signals
High-Confidence Launch Indicators:
Patent Maturity
Detailed implementation specifications, rather than broad conceptual descriptions, indicate a serious development commitment.
GitHub Acceleration
Increased commit frequency and contributor additions suggest that approaching launch timelines are imminent.
Trademark Clustering
Multiple related brand filings within short timeframes indicate comprehensive preparation for a product launch.
Cross-Platform Consistency
Same technology themes appearing across patents, GitHub, and trademarks confirm strategic priorities.
Early-Stage Speculation Signals:
Research Patents
Broad, conceptual filings exploring possibilities rather than defining implementations.
Experimental Repositories
Proof-of-concept code without production infrastructure or documentation.
Defensive Trademarks
Brand protection filings without corresponding patent or development activity.
Academic Collaboration
University partnerships and research paper citations suggest early-stage investigation.
Competitive Response Strategies
When intelligence reveals competitor development activity:
Immediate Actions (1–4 weeks):
- Accelerate parallel development efforts to maintain competitive parity
- File competing patents to create freedom-to-operate challenges
- Secure trademark protection for alternative brand strategies
- Begin building technical expertise in identified technology areas
Medium-Term Strategy (1–6 months):
- Partner with technology providers before competitors can acquire them
- Develop alternative technical approaches, circumventing competitor patents
- Build customer education and thought leadership around emerging technologies
- Create strategic partnerships complementing anticipated competitor offerings
Long-Term Positioning (6–24 months):
- Invest in next-generation technologies beyond the competitor’s current focus
- Build patent portfolios, creating defensive and offensive intellectual property positions
- Establish market positions in segments that competitors are likely to abandon
- Develop acquisition strategies for companies with complementary patent portfolios
Legal and Ethical Considerations
All public record intelligence operates within legal boundaries:
Patent Information
Published patent applications are public records intended for disclosure and the advancement of innovation.
GitHub Code
Open source repositories are publicly accessible with explicit sharing intentions.
Trademark Filings
Trademark databases exist to promote public transparency and prevent conflicts.
However, maintain ethical standards:
- Focus on strategic intelligence rather than copying specific implementations
- Respect intellectual property rights and avoid patent infringement
- Use intelligence for competitive positioning rather than sabotage
- Maintain confidentiality of analysis and insights until competitive responses are implemented
The 90-Day Intelligence Operation
Days 1–30: Foundation Building
- Set up patent, GitHub, and trademark monitoring systems
- Identify key competitors and their intellectual property portfolios
- Establish baseline understanding of current competitive positioning
- Create intelligence collection and analysis workflows
Days 31–60: Pattern Recognition
- Analyse filing patterns and development trends
- Identify technology focus areas and strategic directions
- Track timing patterns between filings and product launches
- Build predictive models for competitive move timing
61–90: Strategic Implementation
- Develop competitive response strategies based on intelligence findings
- Implement product roadmap adjustments addressing anticipated competition
- File defensive patents and trademarks protecting your strategic interests
- Build partnerships and capabilities to counter expected competitive moves
The Unfair Advantage
This is what your competitive intelligence teams should be doing. Managing the competitor monitoring machine and creating newsletters and battlecards are important, but these types of activities are not enough to elevate your game.
Most companies react to competitor announcements rather than predicting them. Public record intelligence provides 18–24 months’ warning of strategic moves.
While competitors spend millions on market research and strategy consulting, their actual plans are often documented in free government databases and open-source repositories.
This intelligence asymmetry creates significant competitive advantages for those willing to monitor public records and development activity systematically.
Your competitors are already revealing their next two years of product development.
The question is: are you reading the signals they’re broadcasting to the world?
Start with one competitor. Monitor their patents, GitHub activity, and trademark filings for a period of 30 days. You’ll never look at competitive intelligence the same way again.
